Technology, Climate Change, and Geopolitics Open New Frontiers in Global Resource Competition

Advances in technology, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and climate change are unlocking access to previously inaccessible resource frontiers, intensifying the global race for critical minerals, orbital slots, and emerging shipping routes. These developments are reshaping economic and strategic landscapes as governments, businesses, and resource users compete for both tangible and intangible assets.

The EY Megatrends 2026 report highlights how intersecting forces such as climate change, technological innovation, demographic shifts, and the growing influence of non-state actors are creating a NAVI risk environment—non-linear, accelerated, volatile, and interconnected—for C-suite leaders. This environment is driving global cross-sector transformations that affect how organizations operate, compete, and create value.

Key domains that were once separated by barriers of altitude, distance, or depth are now opening to resource extraction, commercial activity, and geopolitical competition. These include the deep earth and deep sea, rich in critical minerals, and Earth orbit, a limited but vital space for communications, research, observation, and defense.

Technology, geopolitics, and climate change are expanding access to these frontier resources. Governments are increasingly active in securing strategic resources amid intensifying geopolitical competition and weakening international cooperation. The clean energy transition further escalates demand for minerals essential to renewable energy systems, batteries, electric vehicles, and power grids, adding pressure on supply chains.

In the realm of deep earth and deep seabed mining, growing demand for critical minerals is driving exploration and extraction efforts. Deep earth mining extends existing mines three to four kilometers underground to access metals such as copper, gold, nickel, zinc, and platinum, offering a near-term solution as shallow deposits decline. Deep seabed mining targets polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, and rare earth elements. The Pacific Ocean’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone alone contains an estimated 21.1 billion dry tons of these nodules, with potential value in the trillions of dollars.

Companies are developing artificial intelligence-enabled robotics to recover these nodules from depths of up to 6,500 meters. The International Seabed Authority (ISA), under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), oversees exploration activities and has approved 31 exploration contracts. While seabed mining remains in early stages, it could become a significant source of critical minerals. However, its commercial viability and environmental sustainability are still uncertain, with concerns about impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries, and food security.

Earth orbit is another rapidly growing frontier. Considered a limited natural resource, it underpins a space economy projected to expand from $613 billion in 2024 to $1 trillion by 2032, with private sector activity accounting for about two-thirds of this value. The sector encompasses satellite services, launch systems, manufacturing, Earth observation, and space infrastructure. Venture capital investment in space technology has surged in recent years, fueling growth in private space stations, tourism, research, and manufacturing.

The Philippines is advancing its space ambitions through efforts to develop launch capabilities, rocket technology expertise, and enabling infrastructure, positioning itself to participate more actively in the space economy. Globally, launch costs have fallen 65%, and active satellites have increased from 3,300 in 2020 to 13,000 in 2024, with commercial launches dominating. Up to 70,000 additional low-Earth orbit satellites are expected within five years.

Despite the Outer Space Treaty designating space as the province of all mankind, orbital congestion is increasing. Approximately 15,000 objects have been launched into orbit, generating an estimated 140 million pieces of debris. This raises the risk of a Kessler syndrome, highlighting weaknesses in debris management, space traffic coordination, anti-satellite regulation, and deorbiting policies. Rising military and intelligence activities, along with anti-satellite weapons tests, contribute to growing geopolitical competition and orbital debris, threatening critical services such as GPS, communications, and Earth observation.

Currently, Earth orbit remains lightly regulated despite its growing strategic importance. National regulators and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) manage access to orbit and radio spectrum, but no effective global authority enforces responsible behavior in space. Stronger international cooperation will be essential as more countries enter the sector.

The opening of new frontiers beneath the Earth and beyond the atmosphere presents significant opportunities to address resource shortages, strengthen economic resilience, and support technological progress. However, these opportunities come with challenges including environmental risks, competing territorial and strategic interests, and governance frameworks struggling to keep pace with rapid change. The decisions made today by governments, businesses, and international institutions will determine whether these frontier domains become sources of shared prosperity or growing conflict. Responsible resource management and enhanced international collaboration will be crucial to ensuring these emerging frontiers remain sustainable and beneficial for future generations.