UN Security Council Initiates Selection Process for Next Secretary-General with First Straw Poll

The United Nations Security Council has officially commenced the selection process for the organization’s next secretary-general by conducting its initial “straw poll” to assess support for the seven candidates vying for the prestigious global leadership role. This first informal vote marks the beginning of what is expected to be a protracted and closely watched race to succeed Antonio Guterres, who will conclude his second five-year term on December 31, 2026.

The current field includes four women and three men from diverse regions, reflecting the UN’s tradition of geographic rotation for the top post. The candidates are Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, Olara Otunnu of Uganda, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, and Macky Sall of Senegal. Among them, Grossi, who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency, arguably has the highest international profile, but observers note that no clear frontrunner has yet emerged in what could be a drawn-out contest lasting several months.

As diplomats gathered behind closed doors for the straw poll, Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN, Asim Ahmad, emphasized the importance of selecting the best candidate for the role. However, many diplomats expressed caution about predicting the outcome, given the significant influence wielded by the five permanent members of the Security Council—the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom—none of whom have publicly revealed their preferences. One senior UN diplomat remarked that guessing the eventual winner was as uncertain as anyone else’s speculation.

To secure the position, a candidate must obtain at least nine votes from the 15 Security Council members and avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members, who remain deeply divided on various global issues. Once a candidate clears these hurdles, the nomination proceeds to the General Assembly, where all UN member states vote to confirm the appointment.

The straw poll mechanism, first introduced in the early 1980s to resolve deadlocks caused by vetoes, remains an informal but critical part of the selection process despite criticism over its opacity. In this initial round, all ballots are uniform in color, and each council member anonymously assigns each candidate one of three designations: “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.” This process allows candidates with little support to consider withdrawing gracefully, though they are not compelled to do so.

After an unspecified number of straw polls, the ballots of the five permanent members will be distinguished by a different color, enabling observers to identify potential vetoes without revealing which country cast them. Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group noted that these polls help clarify which candidates lack viability and may prompt them to step aside with dignity. He also expressed skepticism that any candidate would achieve a decisive numerical advantage at this early stage.

The tradition of rotating the UN’s top leadership role among different regions suggests that this time the position should go to a candidate from Latin America, a region well represented among the contenders. Panama’s ambassador to the UN, Eloy Alfaro de Alba, underscored the priority of selecting a woman from Latin America, reflecting a broader push by many member states to appoint the first female UN secretary-general.

Prior to the straw poll, six of the candidates participated in open public hearings conducted by the General Assembly and private sessions with the Security Council. Olara Otunnu, who entered the race more recently, did not take part in these hearings. The selection process is expected to continue over the coming weeks, with multiple rounds of voting anticipated before a consensus candidate emerges.